Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa export momentum, which saw nearly 1 million tonnes contracted for the 2026-27 harvest, faces a potential setback due to the looming El Niño weather phenomenon expected in July, industry insiders warn. The Conseil du Café et du Cacao (CCC) in Abidjan has already adjusted its incentives, raising the premium on additional sales from zero to $135 per tonne above the futures price, to manage stock levels strategically.
The surge in demand and tightening market conditions ahead of the September 1 new season have driven pre-contracts to impressive figures. « We’ve already secured between 950,000 and 1 million tonnes for the upcoming cycle, but we’ve opted to slow the pace and exercise caution, » shared an insider from the CCC. Trading firms anticipate exports between 1.1 and 1.2 million tonnes, attributing the premium hike to a robust market environment. « The market allows them to be more assertive. The CCC doesn’t need to lower the premium to secure deals, » noted a cocoa trading executive.
However, this positive trajectory could be derailed by El Niño, which threatens to bring drought to major cocoa-producing nations like Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria. Such conditions would significantly disrupt output, adding pressure to an already fragile supply chain.
Beyond weather risks, exporters highlight two critical challenges for 2027: aging plantations and soaring fertilizer costs. Many cocoa farms in Côte d’Ivoire are decades old and plagued by diseases, exacerbating production vulnerabilities. « El Niño isn’t the biggest threat—it’s the fertilizer and phytosanitary shortages that worry me most, » stressed the CEO of an Abidjan-based export firm.
