Cameroon has positioned the renewal of its partnership with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a critical factor in its upcoming three-year budget plan. Based on the Medium-Term Economic and Budgetary Programming Document for 2027-2029, which the Ministry of Finance submitted to Parliament during the Budget Orientation Debate, Yaoundé anticipates 300 billion FCFA in support contingent on a new program with the Bretton Woods institution. This projected funding represents nearly 9.5% of the total financing needs for 2027, which are estimated at 3,161.5 billion FCFA.
This decision carries significant weight. The previous program, initiated in 2021 and later extended for a year, concluded in July 2025. Since then, Finance Minister Louis Paul Motazé has openly advocated for a new agreement, reiterating this stance during the Cabinet meeting on October 30, 2025. While the Prime Minister referred the formal decision to commence negotiations to the Presidency of the Republic, the inclusion of future assistance in the triennial framework indicates that the executive already considers this option as its primary scenario.
A financing shortfall tied to the future IMF program
Cameroon’s overall budget deficit is projected to reach 1,018 billion FCFA in 2027, an increase from the 808.5 billion FCFA expected in 2026. Nearly 30% of this deficit would be covered solely by the support conditional on an IMF agreement. In addition to this deficit, the country faces 2,143.5 billion FCFA in financing and treasury charges, primarily driven by debt repayment and the clearance of arrears. The financial debt alone requiring repayment is estimated at 1,602.5 billion FCFA.
To balance the budget, the state plans to draw 866.7 billion FCFA from project loans, issue 400 billion FCFA in public securities, secure 250 billion FCFA in direct bank financing, and utilize 131.5 billion FCFA from its reserves at the Bank of Central African States (BEAC). Crucially, the government envisions a new external loan of 1,000 billion FCFA, following a similar operation scheduled for 2026. The DPEB explicitly labels the absence of an IMF agreement as a “major risk” to the medium-term sustainability of public finances.
Should a program not materialize, the Treasury would need to offset the missing 300 billion FCFA through additional borrowing, intensified domestic resource mobilization, or expenditure adjustments. However, the Ministry of Finance itself acknowledges the rising cost of resources in the domestic market, firm interest rates, and the still limited depth of the CEMAC’s domestic financial market. These constraints significantly restrict the ability to easily substitute commercial debt for concessional support.
A leveraging effect on other donors
Beyond the direct disbursements from the Washington-based institution, an agreement with the IMF serves as a catalyst for other partners, including the World Bank, the African Development Bank (AfDB), the European Union, and various bilateral partners. These creditors frequently condition their support on the implementation of reforms and adherence to macroeconomic objectives validated within the program framework.
According to Louis Paul Motazé, the two programs implemented between 2017 and 2025 enabled Cameroon to secure approximately 2,600 billion FCFA in budgetary support, combining IMF disbursements with associated contributions from other partners. The Minister warned that “we would no longer receive them if a new program with the IMF is not concluded.” Concurrently, Yaoundé plans to broaden the non-oil tax base, modernize collection administrations, and rationalize current expenditures to prioritize investment.
A regional hurdle before Washington’s green light
Cameroon’s approach, however, remains dependent on the overall situation within the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC). Across the zone, national programs supported by the IMF require regional assurances concerning monetary policy, the replenishment of foreign exchange reserves, and the coherence of the six member states’ budgetary trajectories.
The review of CEMAC’s common policies, initially scheduled for December 2025, has been postponed. Authorities cite insufficient alignment of national budgetary policies with the regional strategy and incomplete agreements on the assurances linked to the reforms. This regional validation is a prerequisite, though it does not automatically pave the way for a bilateral agreement between Yaoundé and the IMF.
The timeline remains a critical concern. By immediately factoring 300 billion FCFA of conditional support into its 2027 financing plan, the Cameroonian executive is tying a portion of its budgetary credibility to the outcome of these negotiations. A prolonged delay would necessitate increased reliance on commercial debt or cuts in public spending, potentially undermining stated investment ambitions.
