Sometimes the irony of history is more than just a phrase. Forty-four years after the “match of shame” in Gijon at the 1982 World Cup, Algeria and Austria meet again, both teams full of calculations about what comes next. In 1982, the final group matches were not played simultaneously. Austria and Germany knew that a narrow win for the latter would send both through (at Algeria’s expense). The result was a 1-0 German victory and a largely uncompetitive match.
Forty-four years later, the scenario is very different. With the expansion to 48 teams and the qualification of the eight best third-placed teams (from 12 groups), the calculations are complex yet simple at the same time, because the Austria-Algeria match will be the last group game with implications for that third-place ranking.
Currently, Austria sits second in the group with three points and a goal difference of zero, while Algeria is third with a goal difference of minus two. The cut-off for qualification will be at least three points and a goal difference of zero or positive – something both teams can achieve with a draw, but neither can with a defeat. However, there are some scenarios where Austria could still qualify with a narrow loss, if Congo does not win and Croatia loses to Ghana.
Rangnick: “We’ll see in the final minutes”
Why would either team want to lose? Because, due to the unusual bracket in this 48-team World Cup, finishing third might be preferable to finishing second in this group: second place will face Spain, a tournament favourite, while third place will face a group winner, potentially Switzerland. But recent results have made this calculation less certain. More likely, it will be either qualification via second place or elimination for Austria – and the Austrians will know all other group results by the time they take the field.
The draw scenario that suits both teams remains. With four points each, they would both qualify. This has already happened in this World Cup, as Ralf Rangnick pointed out, referring to the Paraguay-Australia 0-0 draw. “We saw what happened with Paraguay and Australia, where a draw was enough for both teams,” the Austrian coach noted in a press conference. However, he quickly dismissed the idea of playing for a draw from the start. “But you can’t go into this match saying we’ll play for a draw. We are in the same situation as Algeria. We’ll see in the final minutes.”
Algeria’s coach Vladimir Petkovic echoed that sentiment: “We must give everything on the pitch and not think about the different hypotheses. We step onto the field with one goal: to win.”
