While the Sahel region, stretching from Mali to Chad, may not immediately appear as a new economic frontier, its strategic importance is undeniable. Far from being a hub for foreign direct investment like Singapore, the core economies of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger face significant challenges. In Mali, for instance, a staggering 47% of its 25.9 million residents are under 15, only a quarter of its land is arable, and it ranks 188th out of 193 countries on the Human Development Index. Nearly 45% of its population lives below the poverty line. Ouagadougou and Niamey present similar statistics, with 40% and 60.5% of their populations, respectively, living in poverty, according to the World Bank. These three landlocked nations are currently led by military regimes that have formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), reportedly with the Kremlin’s distant backing, aiming to diminish remaining French influence. Their declared anti-French, anti-Western, and anti-democratic stance was intended to usher in prosperity, which they claimed had been denied by Europeans. However, this has not materialized. Amidst these complex dynamics, two neighboring countries, Algeria and Morocco, are actively extending their services and influence.
Morocco: an atlantic gateway for the Sahel
Morocco is developing the Dakhla Atlantic Port, a project in the Western Sahara envisioned to rival the strategic importance of Tanger Med as a European hub. Scheduled for completion in 2028 and operational the following year, this infrastructure aims to serve as a vital entry point for West Africa and a crucial link to the Americas. Rabat has hosted leaders from the AES, presenting a compelling geopolitical proposition: a deep-sea port connected by a proposed railway line (yet to be finalized) that would provide the three landlocked nations with direct access to the ocean, thereby fostering economic development. For Morocco, which faces geographical isolation due to its conflict with Algeria, this initiative simultaneously demonstrates that its Western Sahara development plan benefits the entire sub-region. Furthermore, it seeks to indirectly combat jihadist groups plaguing the Sahel by offering economic opportunities to a burgeoning youth population that currently faces limited prospects, especially given the region’s rapidly growing birth rate, projected to double its population within a decade.
Algeria: a trans-saharan gas pipeline to Europe
Algeria, which had previously experienced strained relations with Niger, mended ties in mid-February with Abderrahmane Tiani, the head of Niger’s military government. As part of this renewed cooperation, Algiers proposed commencing construction of a segment of the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline immediately after Ramadan. This ambitious project, originating in Nigeria, would now traverse Niger before reaching Algeria. Spanning 4,800 kilometers, the pipeline is designed to supply natural gas to Europe. Sonatrach, Algeria’s national hydrocarbons company, would oversee construction on Nigerian soil and commit to training Nigerien personnel in its operation. This commitment to local capacity building stands as a significant advantage, particularly when contrasted with the practices of some other international actors, such as China, who often do not prioritize training local populations in managing their national resources.
Two complementary yet conflicting strategies
Discussions in Madrid and Washington in late February focused on Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara. Should this five-decade-long conflict finally be resolved, Algeria and Morocco could potentially collaborate on the Sahel’s urgent security and demographic challenges. Such cooperation would prevent AES states from exploiting the existing rivalries between the two regional powers. Jihadism thrives on the twin scourges of poverty and authoritarian governance. Both Algiers and Rabat are independently striving to break this destructive cycle, each leveraging their unique strengths. Algeria offers its rich hydrocarbon resources and Sonatrach’s expertise, while Morocco champions its grand infrastructure projects and its aspiration to become a strategic hub connecting Africa, America, and Europe. These two distinct strategies, while inherently complementary in their goals for regional stability, unfortunately remain at odds due to the unresolved Western Sahara conflict. This ongoing friction hinders a potentially powerful joint approach to the Sahel’s complex issues.
Tensions have occasionally flared, as evidenced by a past incident where Mali’s Prime Minister, Abdoulaye Maïga, publicly accused Algeria of supporting international terrorism, to which Algerian Foreign Minister Ahmed Attaf retorted, dismissing the claims as “a soldier’s rant.”
