In Mali, the blockade enforced by the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda-affiliated jihadist group, has escalated dramatically. Over the weekend, at least ten buses were set ablaze along the critical Ségou-Bamako corridor, a vital supply route connecting the capital to eastern regions. Simultaneously, key electrical infrastructure linked to the Manantali hydroelectric dam in Kayes was targeted and destroyed. While Malian forces continue operations on multiple fronts, they have yet to lift the economic stranglehold choking the nation.
Manantali: a strategic target in a war of attrition
The assault on Manantali’s power lines is far from incidental. The dam, managed jointly by Mali, Mauritania, and Senegal under the Senegal River Development Organization (OMVS), serves as a cornerstone of Mali’s urban electricity grid. By striking these lines, JNIM is no longer just targeting defense forces—it is dismantling the backbone of the country’s economy, where power outages instantly paralyze public services, businesses, and industries.
This campaign follows weeks of systematic attacks on fuel convoys from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. The jihadists aim to weaponize fuel shortages, betting on eroding public confidence in the transitional government led by General Assimi Goïta. Bamako, once relatively insulated, now finds itself at the heart of a grinding battle of endurance.
Army’s response and fragile relief efforts
In response, the Malian military reports ongoing ground and air operations across several regions. Military escorts have facilitated the entry of hundreds of fuel tankers into Bamako in recent days, temporarily easing the pressure on gas stations under siege. However, this logistical reprieve remains fragile—each convoy demands substantial resources, and securing national highways in the long term appears increasingly unattainable.
The Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) are also contending with a pincer movement. In the west and central regions, JNIM has intensified ambushes and infrastructure sabotage. Meanwhile, in the north’s Kidal area, tensions remain frozen in a precarious stalemate, with further clashes likely against the Permanent Strategic Framework rebel alliance. The government in Bamako is thus navigating two distinct fronts, its already strained human and material resources stretched to the limit.
Regional tensions flare as blockade spreads
The Malian blockade has expanded beyond national borders, sending shockwaves through neighboring economies. Senegal, Mauritania, and Côte d’Ivoire are watching with growing alarm as trade corridors across West Africa deteriorate. The slowdown in goods transit is taking a toll on ports like Dakar and Abidjan, where significant volumes once flowed toward the Sahelian hinterland. The Sahel States Confederation—comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—has yet to forge a unified response to the economic warfare waged by jihadist factions.
The attack on Manantali also raises urgent questions about shared OMVS infrastructure. Further damage could directly disrupt electricity supplies to Senegal and Mauritania, transforming a Malian crisis into a regional crisis. External partners, including donors and military suppliers, face a delicate balancing act: supporting Bamako’s sovereignty claims while protecting critical cross-border installations.
On the ground, the gap between the army’s operational claims and the stark reality of a capital under siege underscores the conflict’s new phase. JNIM is no longer merely contesting territory—it is systematically suffocating a state.
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