During a recent online discussion hosted by journalist Stanis Bujakera Tshiamala, Joshua Z. Walker, an Associate Fellow with Chatham House’s Africa program and a Senior Fellow at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation, shared a cautious yet alarming analysis regarding the ongoing peace efforts between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda.
When asked about the potential consequences should Washington’s patience wane concerning the protracted peace process, Walker, while admitting he is “no prophet,” presented two primary scenarios. The first suggests a return to the dynamics that prevailed before the significant American intervention in 2025. The second, more concerning, points to a continuation of the current stalemate.
It is this second hypothesis that deeply troubles the researcher. “I often say that even if there is no withdrawal of the M23, every day that passes with the M23 continuing to occupy parts of eastern Congo, they become more entrenched,” Walker elaborated.
He emphasized that the mere passage of time exacerbates the situation. “That’s the real fear, in fact: that we reach a point where, simply through the passage of time, we end up with a situation where, de facto, a part of the DRC remains entirely outside government control.”
