The coup’s initial promises
When General Abdourahamane Tiani deposed President Mohamed Bazoum on July 26, 2023, the move was framed around three central commitments: restoring national sovereignty, eradicating terrorism, and ending foreign influence over Niger’s decision-making. This narrative, amplified by state-aligned media and pro-sovereignty movements, resonated with many citizens exhausted by chronic insecurity and economic hardship.
Sovereignty rhetoric as political tool
The National Council for the Safeguarding of the Homeland (CNSP) has built its legitimacy on a simple yet powerful story: Niger, it claims, has regained its sovereignty by severing ties with former Western partners. This narrative pits a “patriotic” government against foreign actors accused of long undermining national interests.
For the regime, this strategy offers multiple advantages. It unites segments of public opinion under a shared national sentiment, deflects internal criticism by framing dissent as foreign sympathies, and shifts focus away from evaluating actual governance performance. Yet sovereignty cannot be measured solely by diplomatic ruptures or the withdrawal of foreign forces. True sovereignty requires ensuring citizen safety, functional institutions, fundamental freedoms, and improved living conditions—areas where tangible progress remains scarce.
Political communication exploiting public frustrations
The junta has tapped into deep-seated disillusionment stemming from insecurity, unemployment, inequality, and rising living costs. This backdrop made the regime change appear as a historic break. Over time, however, official communication has prioritized sustaining patriotic mobilization over presenting verifiable achievements. Political announcements, regime-backed rallies, and denunciations of foreign conspiracies dominate media space, while public debates on policy effectiveness remain notably absent.
This shift reframes political discourse: evaluating government actions is increasingly overshadowed by loyalty or opposition to the regime, undermining accountability culture.
Security remains the unmet challenge
Improving security was the primary justification for overthrowing civilian authorities. Yet multiple regions continue to face armed group attacks, mass displacements, and pervasive insecurity. Civilians bear the brunt, with economic activities, social services, and community cohesion severely disrupted.
The Nigerien military continues operations across multiple fronts, but repeated attacks on military positions and villages highlight the persistent threat posed by armed groups. These challenges underscore that resolving the crisis requires more than regime change or shifting international alliances.
The lack of transparent, publicly available progress indicators further fuels doubts about the current security strategy’s effectiveness.
Blame-shifting as crisis management
Faced with mounting difficulties, the regime frequently frames national crises through a geopolitical lens, attributing Niger’s struggles to sanctions from ECOWAS, former Western partners, neighboring states, or foreign networks. While regional tensions and international rivalries undeniably shape the Sahel’s security landscape, they cannot fully explain Niger’s internal challenges.
Relying on external scapegoats risks turning every domestic crisis into a diplomatic confrontation, sidelining discussions on national responsibilities, institutional reforms, and governance improvements. Over time, this approach may weaken institutions’ capacity for self-criticism and reform.
Economic strain under political uncertainty
Economically, the promises of regime change have yet to materialize for most citizens. Regional sanctions, reduced investment, trade disruptions, and political instability have strained multiple sectors. Households grapple with soaring living costs, limited access to essential goods, and scarce job opportunities. For many, the tangible benefits of political rupture remain elusive.
Economic sovereignty, often cited in official speeches, demands long-term improvements in domestic production, infrastructure, public finances, and business environments—challenges requiring sustained policy efforts rather than rhetorical shifts.
Shrinking civic space
Observers also warn of a narrowing civic space. Criticism of the government is increasingly met with heightened scrutiny, while journalists, civil society actors, and opponents navigate an environment of tightened state oversight. In many military-led systems, power concentration coincides with the erosion of institutional checks and balances. Niger now faces the same dilemma: how to preserve national unity amid security threats without sacrificing the pluralism essential for responsible governance?
The absence of a clearly defined transition timeline further fuels uncertainty about the junta’s duration and prospects for a return to constitutional order.
From patriotism to concrete results
Patriotism is a powerful unifying force, but it cannot indefinitely substitute for tangible outcomes. Sovereignty is not declared in speeches; it is built through robust institutions, resilient economies, credible justice systems, effective security, and transparent governance.
Recent Sahel experiences demonstrate that no government—military or civilian—can sustain legitimacy solely by denouncing external enemies. As time passes, citizens judge leaders less by their rhetoric and more by their ability to improve daily lives. For General Abdourahamane Tiani and the CNSP, the real test is no longer convincing Nigeriens of the country’s sovereignty, but proving that sovereignty delivers tangible benefits in security, development, justice, and freedom. Without this concrete translation, anti-imperialist rhetoric risks appearing as a political tool rather than a transformative national project.
