The 2024 census data highlights dramatic demographic shifts across Morocco. Urban peripheries are expanding rapidly, historic city centers are stagnating, and rural areas are barely growing. These changes directly impact the fairness of the country’s electoral map, raising concerns about voter representation in the 2026 legislative elections.

As Morocco prepares for the 2026 vote, the balance between demographic growth and fair political representation is under scrutiny. New census data reveals stark contrasts in voter-to-representative ratios across different provinces, challenging the equity of the current electoral system.

Voter ratios reveal stark inequities across provinces

The electoral system in Morocco operates on two key principles: adjusting seats to population size and ensuring minimum territorial representation. However, this balance creates significant disparities in voter influence.

In sparsely populated southern provinces, the ratio of eligible voters per deputy is shockingly low:

• Aousserd: 2,992 eligible voters per seat
• Tarfaya: 5,368 eligible voters per seat
• Assa-Zag: 10,178 eligible voters per seat
• Es-Semara: 19,712 eligible voters per seat
• Boujdour: 20,185 eligible voters per seat

In contrast, Morocco’s largest urban centers and their surrounding suburbs face the opposite problem—extremely high voter-to-representative ratios:

• Tanger-Assilah: 213,980 eligible voters per seat
• Ménara (Marrakech): 176,256 eligible voters per seat
• Sidi Bernoussi (Casablanca): 174,501 eligible voters per seat
• Nouaceur (Casablanca periphery): 155,172 eligible voters per seat
• Inezgane-Aït Melloul: 151,978 eligible voters per seat

A vote in Aousserd or Tarfaya carries far more weight in electing a deputy compared to one cast in Tanger or Marrakech.

Urban sprawl and the widening rural-urban divide

The 2024 census confirms Morocco’s accelerating urbanization. Out of a total population of 36.8 million, nearly 23.1 million live in urban areas—a jump of 2.68 million over the past decade. Meanwhile, rural areas grew by just 302,419 people, accounting for only 13.7 million residents. Over 71% of Morocco’s population is concentrated in just five regions: Grand Casablanca-Settat, Rabat-Salé-Kénitra, Marrakech-Safi, Fès-Meknès, and Tanger-Tétouan-Al Hoceïma.

One of the most striking trends is the exodus from historic city centers to peripheral communes. Casablanca-Anfa, for example, lost nearly a quarter of its population in a decade, dropping from 453,000 to 332,000 residents. Yet, it still holds four seats—meaning a ratio of 68,707 eligible voters per deputy. Meanwhile, the neighboring province of Nouaceur saw its population double to 665,000 but retains only three seats, resulting in a ratio of 155,172 eligible voters per deputy.

Similar disparities appear in Rabat, where central districts like Rabat-Océan and Rabat-Chellah have low ratios (55,856 and 59,598 eligible voters per seat, respectively), while rapidly growing peripheries like Skhirat-Témara face ratios as high as 141,832 eligible voters per deputy.

Political stakes of electoral redistricting

Adjusting the electoral map to reflect 2024 census data requires complex political decisions ahead of the 2026 elections. If the Interior Ministry opts to rebalance seats without increasing the total number of deputies, it would need to redistribute seats from declining urban centers to booming peripheries like Nouaceur or Skhirat-Témara.

Fewer seats in a constituency intensify electoral competition, favoring large, well-funded parties like RNI, PAM, and Istiqlal—parties currently in the governing coalition. Conversely, more seats per constituency lower the threshold for smaller parties to enter parliament through proportional representation mechanisms like the “plus fort reste” system.

Rural voter loyalty vs. urban abstention

Despite urbanization, many city-dwelling voters remain registered in their rural hometowns to maintain local influence. This explains why rural turnout often exceeds 90%, while urban abstention can reach 70-80% in middle-class districts. Upcoming voter registration and list revision campaigns aim to update residency data, correct errors, and improve the electoral roll’s accuracy ahead of September 23, 2026.

Strategic challenges for the 2026 elections

The demographic shifts highlighted by the 2024 census present strategic challenges for the 2026 legislative elections. Key factors include:

• Mobilizing the urban middle class: Inflation and targeted social reforms have left many middle-class urban voters disillusioned, contributing to high abstention in 2021. Their potential return in 2026—whether to protest or support alternative candidates—could reshape political balances.
• Positioning of political parties: The ruling coalition parties must defend their economic and social records in a post-inflation context, while opposition groups like the PJD seek to capitalize on urban discontent and rally disillusioned voters.

Balancing the realities of the 2024 census with the need to preserve territorial equity will require precision from policymakers. While no official electoral redistricting has been announced, the new population data has set the stage for an inevitable technical and political debate ahead of the 2026 vote.