In Mali, the blockade enforced by the Jnim, an al-Qaïda-linked jihadist group, has escalated to a critical stage. Over the weekend, at least ten buses were set ablaze along the vital Ségou-Bamako route, a lifeline for the capital’s supplies from eastern regions. Simultaneously, electrical infrastructure linked to the Manantali hydroelectric dam in the Kayes region came under targeted assault and sustained damage. While the Malian military continues its counteroffensives across multiple fronts, it has yet to break the economic stranglehold strangling the nation.
Manantali: the beating heart of a silent power struggle
The sabotage of Manantali’s power lines is far from incidental. This dam, jointly managed by Mali, Mauritania, and Senegal under the Senegal River Development Organization (OMVS), serves as Mali’s primary electrical backbone. By crippling its evacuation systems, Jnim is no longer just targeting security forces—it is striking at the urban economy’s core, where blackouts paralyze public services, businesses, and industries within hours. The group’s strategy, unfolding over weeks, now includes systematic attacks on fuel convoys arriving from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire, weaponizing shortages to erode public trust in the transitional government led by General Assimi Goïta. Bamako, once shielded from the worst, has become the epicenter of this war of attrition.
Army’s struggle to keep supply lines open
The Malian armed forces have intensified ground and aerial operations across several regions in response. In recent days, military escorts have successfully escorted hundreds of fuel tankers into Bamako, temporarily easing the pressure on gas stations under siege. Yet this logistical lifeline remains fragile: each convoy demands massive resources, and the long-term security of national highways appears unattainable in the short term. The Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) face a dual crisis. In the west and center, Jnim has intensified ambushes and infrastructure destruction. Farther north, in the Kidal region, tensions remain frozen in a tense standoff, with further clashes looming against the Permanent Strategic Framework rebel coalition. Bamako now navigates two distinct battlefields with dwindling human and material reserves.
Regional ripple effects of a localized conflict
The blockade’s impact stretches well beyond Mali’s borders. Neighboring economies—particularly those of Senegal, Mauritania, and Côte d’Ivoire—are feeling the strain as West African trade corridors unravel. Sluggish cargo flows are straining ports in Dakar and Abidjan, where a significant share of goods once destined for the Sahel hinterland now stagnates. The Sahel States Confederation, uniting Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has yet to forge a unified response to the jihadist-driven economic warfare. The attack on Manantali further amplifies concerns over shared OMVS infrastructure. Any escalation in damage could directly disrupt electricity supply to Senegal and Mauritania, transforming a Malian crisis into a regional emergency. External partners, whether development donors or military suppliers, now face a delicate balancing act: upholding Bamako’s sovereignty claims while safeguarding transboundary critical infrastructure.
The stark contrast between the army’s operational claims and the reality of a capital under siege underscores the unprecedented nature of this conflict phase. Jnim is no longer merely contesting territory—it is waging a campaign to asphyxiate a state.
