In Mali, the blockade enforced by the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda-affiliated jihadist group, has intensified dramatically over the weekend. At least ten buses were set ablaze along the critical Ségou-Bamako highway, the primary supply route connecting the capital to eastern regions. Simultaneously, electrical infrastructure linked to the Manantali hydroelectric dam in Kayes was deliberately targeted and destroyed. While Malian armed forces continue counteroffensives across multiple fronts, the economic stranglehold gripping the nation shows no signs of easing.
Manantali: a strategic target in a war of attrition
The assault on Manantali’s power transmission lines is far from incidental. This dam, co-managed under a tripartite agreement between Mali, Mauritania, and Senegal through the Senegal River Development Organization (OMVS), serves as a backbone of the national power grid. By disrupting its evacuation lines, JNIM is no longer merely challenging security forces—it is striking at the very lifeblood of urban Mali. Power outages now paralyze public services, paralyze businesses, and halt industrial activity almost instantaneously.
This tactic follows weeks of systematic strikes against fuel convoys entering from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. The jihadists are weaponizing fuel shortages to undermine public trust in the transitional government led by General Assimi Goïta. What was once a peripheral insurgency has now engulfed Bamako, turning the capital into the epicenter of a grinding war of exhaustion.
Army response and fragile relief
The Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) report ongoing ground and aerial operations across several regions. Recent military escorts have allowed hundreds of fuel tankers to reach Bamako, temporarily alleviating pressure on gas stations. Yet this logistical reprieve remains precarious. Each convoy demands significant resources, and securing Mali’s national roads for the long term appears increasingly unattainable in the near term.
FAMa faces a dual threat. In central and western Mali, JNIM continues ambushing convoys and sabotaging infrastructure. In the north, near Kidal, tensions remain at a dangerous standstill, with fresh clashes looming against factions of the Permanent Strategic Framework. Bamako is now stretched across two battlefronts, with dwindling manpower and matériel.
Regional spillover: a crisis no longer contained
The blockade has spilled beyond Mali’s borders, rattling neighboring economies. Senegal, Mauritania, and Côte d’Ivoire are watching closely as trade corridors into the Sahel falter. Ports in Dakar and Abidjan—key hubs for goods destined for landlocked Mali—are experiencing sharp declines in throughput. The Sahel States Confederation, grouping Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has yet to mount a coordinated response to this economic warfare campaign.
The attack on Manantali also raises urgent questions about shared infrastructure under the OMVS. Further damage could disrupt electricity supplies to Senegal and Mauritania, turning a Malian crisis into a regional emergency. External partners—whether development donors or military suppliers—are now forced to balance their commitment to Bamako’s sovereignty with the imperative of protecting transboundary critical infrastructure.
On the ground, the gap between military claims and the lived reality in Bamako underscores the evolving nature of this conflict. JNIM is no longer seeking territorial control alone—it is aiming to suffocate a nation. Renewed fighting is expected in the coming days, particularly around Kidal.
