The clock is ticking for Cameroon’s economy as the Hilli Episeyo, a floating liquefaction unit anchored off Kribi since 2018, prepares to depart in July 2026. The vessel, owned by Golar and leased to the national hydrocarbon company Société nationale des hydrocarbures (SNH), will conclude its contract next year, marking a critical turning point for economic forecasts.
Government projections, detailed in the first-quarter 2026 economic outlook by the National Economic and Financial Committee (CNEF), now place the country’s GDP growth at around 3.2% in 2026—down from 3.5% a year earlier—and 3.1% in 2027, with an alternative scenario suggesting 3.3% and 3.2%. In both cases, the extractive sector is expected to drag growth down by 0.4 percentage points annually. Petroleum GDP, encompassing all hydrocarbon-related activities, is forecast to contract by 16.1% in 2026 and 18% in 2027.
LNG sector already weakening ahead of floating plant exit
Withdrawal of the Hilli Episeyo arrives amid a broader decline in the liquefied natural gas market. Export earnings from LNG fell from 622 billion FCFA in 2022 to 350.2 billion in 2025, a drop of 43.7%. The trend deepened in early 2026, with total exports down 23.6% year-on-year to 606.9 billion FCFA, LNG shipments down 28.4%, and crude oil exports down 14.4%. Despite the slide, LNG still accounted for 11.4% of total export revenue in 2025, underscoring its structural importance.
That importance becomes clearer when set against losses in other key sectors. Cocoa and cocoa product exports plunged 37.7%, timber 11.5%, aluminum 53.7%, and raw rubber 16.7%. The compounding declines amplify the impact of the impending loss of the floating liquefaction facility.
Current account deficit widens as fiscal choices tighten
Macroeconomic balances will bear the brunt of the transition. The CNEF projects the current account deficit to widen to 5.4% of GDP in 2026 and 6.1% in 2027, up from an estimated 3.2% in 2025. The budget deficit is expected to follow a similar path, reaching 1.7% and then 2.1% of GDP. These projections factor in a global trade slowdown, rising freight costs, and only modest growth in public revenue.
Rising crude prices add another layer of complexity. Keeping pump prices stable would require increased fuel subsidies, straining the budget. Allowing prices to rise, however, could reignite inflation and erode household purchasing power. The CNEF highlights the narrow margin for maneuver, leaving policymakers with a classic dilemma.
Border field and new blocks offer limited near-term relief
The SNH is banking on upstream diversification to offset the loss of the Hilli Episeyo. Chief among these is the transboundary Yoyo-Yolanda field, shared with Equatorial Guinea, which holds an estimated 2.5 trillion cubic feet of gas and requires a $4 billion investment. Progress is stalled, however, pending finalization of technical and commercial agreements, financing mobilization, and construction of dedicated infrastructure.
In parallel, the national company is continuing to award new exploration blocks in the Rio del Rey and Douala-Kribi-Campo basins. The launch of production-sharing contract negotiations does not guarantee commercially viable discoveries or rapid production startup. The critical risk lies in the length of the transition: the longer the gap between the floating plant’s departure and the entry of new capacity, the more deeply the extractive sector’s negative contribution to growth will take root. None of the announced replacements are expected to offset the drop in LNG exports in the short term.
