Four years ago, public squares in Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey echoed with anti-French slogans. The forced departures of ambassadors and soldiers from Operation Barkhane were hailed as historic victories. Fueled by promises of total renewal, the captains and generals in power assured that regained sovereignty would magically solve the terrorist equation. Today, the honeymoon is definitively over. The record of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) reveals a systemic failure that state propaganda can no longer conceal.
The security mirage: Russia’s partnership backfires
The primary justification for the military coups was France’s failure to eradicate jihadism. Yet the chosen remedy has proven worse than the disease. By replacing Western forces with Russian paramilitaries from Africa Corps (formerly Wagner), Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey opted for a scorched-earth strategy. On the ground, terrorist groups like JNIM and EIGS have never been stronger. They now encircle strategic cities and cut vital supply routes. More alarmingly, the human toll is devastating. Reports from independent organizations document a surge in atrocities against civilians during joint operations. Far from being protected, Sahelian populations are caught between jihadist terror and the brutality of new security auxiliaries, while the number of internally displaced people reaches historic highs.
Diplomatic isolation: Institutional flight forward
To mask domestic failures, AES leaders have pursued a policy of permanent rupture. Their dramatic withdrawal from ECOWAS deprived the three countries of their natural economic partners. More recently, their collective exit from the International Criminal Court (ICC) and restrictions on UN agencies have turned the region into a diplomatic gray zone. This institutional flight forward primarily serves to shield the regimes from any external scrutiny of human rights or transition timelines. Promised elections to return power to civilians are repeatedly postponed indefinitely, turning temporary transitions into entrenched military dictatorships.
Economy in crisis and social regression
On the economic front, the ledger is equally grim. The rhetoric of monetary sovereignty and self-sufficiency collides with harsh financial realities. Regional isolation has driven a vertiginous rise in the cost of living and basic goods. Local businesses suffocate under the weight of indirect sanctions, dwindling foreign investment, and chronic electricity cuts that paralyze Bamako and Ouagadougou. While national budgets are drained to fund the war effort and pay Russian mercenaries (often compensated through mining concessions), basic social services collapse. Thousands of schools remain closed, and the healthcare system is depleted. Instead of investing in human development, national resources are confiscated by military machines.
A change of masters, not liberation
Four years after the great divorce from Paris, the assessment is bitter. The Sahel is neither safer, nor more prosperous, nor more independent. By dismissing an imperfect but predictable Western partner, AES leaders have thrown their countries into the arms of an opportunistic Russian power with purely geopolitical goals. The promised “second independence” has turned into a tragic economic and security regression, where sovereignty waved from the top is merely a facade for the suffocation of people on the ground.
