The jihadist group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), affiliated with al-Qaeda, has escalated its campaign against Mali’s capital, Bamako, by extending its blockade and targeting critical infrastructure. Over the weekend, at least ten buses were set ablaze along the Ségou-Bamako corridor, a vital supply route into the city from eastern regions. Simultaneously, jihadist forces struck power transmission lines linked to the Manantali hydroelectric dam in the Kayes region, further straining Mali’s already fragile energy grid.
Manantali dam: a strategic target in a war of attrition
The assault on Manantali is not a random act of sabotage. The dam, operated under a tripartite agreement with Mauritania and Senegal through the Organisation for the Development of the Senegal River (OMVS), is a cornerstone of Mali’s electricity supply. By disabling its evacuation lines, JNIM is no longer targeting just military forces—it is disrupting the very lifeblood of urban life. Power cuts paralyze public services, cripple businesses, and halt industrial activity, turning energy into a weapon of economic warfare.
This tactic is part of a broader strategy unfolding over weeks: the systematic targeting of fuel convoys entering from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. The jihadists aim to weaponize fuel shortages, betting on public frustration with the transitional government led by General Assimi Goïta. Bamako, once relatively insulated from the worst of the conflict, now finds itself at the epicenter of a grinding battle of endurance.
Army counters with high-risk escorts, but gains remain fragile
The Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) have responded with intensified ground and air operations across multiple regions. Military escorts have enabled hundreds of fuel tankers to reach Bamako in recent days, temporarily easing pressure on gas stations. Yet these gains are precarious. Each convoy demands significant resources, and sustained security along national highways remains unattainable in the near term.
The army faces a dual challenge. In western and central Mali, JNIM continues to ambush convoys and destroy infrastructure. In the north, around Kidal, tensions remain high, with fresh clashes likely against rebel factions of the Permanent Strategic Framework. The transitional government is thus navigating two fronts with dwindling human and material resources.
Regional spillover: economies brace for impact
The blockade’s ripple effects extend far beyond Mali’s borders. Neighbouring nations—Senegal, Mauritania, and Côte d’Ivoire—are feeling the strain as trade corridors across West Africa falter. The slowdown is particularly acute for ports like Dakar and Abidjan, which rely heavily on transit routes into the Sahel. The Sahel States Confederation, comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has yet to formulate a unified response to the economic warfare being waged by jihadist groups.
The attack on Manantali also raises urgent questions about shared infrastructure under the OMVS. Further damage could directly affect electricity supplies to Senegal and Mauritania, turning a Malian crisis into a regional emergency. International partners, including donors and military suppliers, face a dilemma: uphold support for Bamako’s sovereignty while protecting critical cross-border assets.
On the ground, the disconnect between the army’s operational claims and the reality of a besieged capital underscores the conflict’s evolving nature. JNIM is no longer merely contesting territory—it is attempting to suffocate a state. Renewed fighting is expected in the coming days, particularly around Kidal, where the stakes are highest.
