The peace initiative aimed at resolving tensions between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda has reached a “deadlock,” according to Jason K. Stearns, an associate professor at Simon Fraser University. Speaking during a recent online discussion hosted by journalist Stanis Bujakera Tshiamala, Stearns highlighted that neither the Doha-Montreux negotiations nor the Washington-led efforts have yielded any concrete progress over the past year.
Montreux negotiations: persistent disagreements
Regarding the Montreux discussions, Stearns noted a distinct lack of significant shifts since the initial talks. He emphasized that “major disagreements” continue to plague relations between the Congolese government and the M23 rebel group, operating under the banner of the Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC).
Concerning the agreement brokered between Kinshasa and Kigali under Washington’s facilitation, Stearns acknowledged the signing of “numerous accords.” However, he stressed that their “implementation presents a genuine challenge.” He drew a comparison to American diplomatic approaches in other contexts, such as Iran, suggesting that the Trump administration, while “heavily invested in diplomacy,” risks settling for “grand declarations and Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs)”—essentially framework agreements—”without substantial progress on actual execution.” For Stearns, the critical objective remains “moving beyond these framework agreements to achieve a true compromise,” a resolution that, in his view, “is not yet clearly defined.”
The elusive compromise: a familiar pattern
Stearns reiterated that the sought-after compromise between Kinshasa and Kigali mirrors previous agreements, including the comprehensive and inclusive accord from the 2003 transition period. This involves the withdrawal of Rwandan troops in exchange for a Congolese commitment to combat the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR). He highlighted this as the “same deal,” with minimal progress observed in its execution.
Regarding the M23, Stearns observed a complete lack of mutual understanding. The Congolese side continues to favor a “military solution,” while the rebel movement has declared its intention to maintain its presence for “another ten years.” The researcher concluded that success in this area remains “very, very distant.”
Why peace efforts are stalled: US pressure and strategic gaps
When questioned about the reasons for this stalemate, Jason Stearns initially praised a unique contribution from the Trump administration compared to earlier mediation efforts by the East African Community and the African Union (through Angolan mediation). He pointed to the application of genuine pressure, which he believes was absent in previous attempts. Stearns assessed that “sanctions against Rwanda are more aggressive than ever before,” even surpassing measures taken since the major Congolese wars began in 1996.
However, he identified two significant shortcomings. Firstly, a lack of coherence within the international community: Washington imposes sanctions on Rwanda without involving European nations, who are among Kigali’s primary financial backers. Stearns exemplified this disconnect by noting that Rwandan President Paul Kagame continues to sign agreements, including with American basketball teams, which, in his view, does not reflect a leader truly under intense international pressure.
Secondly, the absence of a clear, comprehensive strategy: American diplomats, as cited by Jason Stearns, indicate that Washington has no military solution in mind—a stance Stearns agrees with. Yet, the compromise strategy intended to underpin the pressure exerted on Kigali remains, in his opinion, undefined.
A rejected Montreux proposal and uneven diplomatic pressure
The researcher further disclosed that American diplomats reportedly put forward a “vague” compromise proposal between the M23 and the DRC during the Montreux talks. This proposal, never publicly released, would have offered the rebel movement a form of “partial integration,” based on Stearns’ understanding of the situation, though he clarified he did not have direct access to the agreement’s text. This proposition was ultimately rejected by both sides.
Ultimately, Jason Stearns concluded that the most significant missing element today is comparable diplomatic pressure on Kinshasa. He believes that, unlike Rwanda, the DRC has “not truly experienced significant diplomatic pressure from the United States” thus far.
