Cameroon is currently preparing for one of its most significant external financing operations since its January 2026 Eurobond issuance. According to the monthly public debt report for June 2026, published by the Caisse Autonome d’Amortissement (CAA), the state plans to secure $690 million, approximately 400 billion FCFA, through an ESG-focused loan aimed at international investors. This venture, however, unfolds against a political backdrop that could sway market perceptions, notably the extended absence of President Paul Biya, a factor international investors routinely consider when assessing sovereign risk.
The head of state has not been seen publicly since June 7, 2026, when authorities announced his departure for a “brief private stay” in Switzerland. An investigation published on July 30 noted this absence as the longest observed since his ascent to power in 1982. This period of invisibility has reignited speculation within Cameroon regarding President Biya’s health and whereabouts.
Authorities continue to refute these rumors. The Minister of Communication, René Emmanuel Sadi, maintains that “the President is in good health and is working from Geneva, where he currently resides. Information suggesting otherwise is pure fantasy and malicious manipulation designed to destabilize public opinion.”
Despite these assurances, questions persist. Several opposition leaders have called for greater transparency regarding the President’s status, some even citing an institutional vacuum. For international investors, these discussions primarily fuel the assessment of political risk, a criterion weighed alongside macroeconomic fundamentals and budgetary indicators.
Rating agencies have long monitored political risk
Analyses from credit rating agencies reveal that this issue is not a recent development. In its November 15, 2024 report, Fitch Ratings stated that “political instability will be a major factor influencing Cameroon’s sovereign rating. President Paul Biya’s age, his longevity in power since 1982, and the absence of a succession plan exacerbate the risk of a disorderly power transition.” At that time, the agency maintained a B rating with a negative outlook.
On May 9, 2025, Fitch reaffirmed this rating, citing “growing political tensions as elections approach,” ongoing fragility in budgetary governance, and persistent shortcomings in public finance management. Moody’s presented a similar analysis in February 2024, concluding that “risks of political destabilization linked to the absence of a credible presidential succession plan” justified maintaining its Caa rating, while cautioning that “a chaotic transition could lead to delays in debt payments.”
Standard & Poor’s also highlighted this vulnerability in its March 21, 2025 analysis. The agency reiterated that “Cameroon has been led since 1982 by President Paul Biya, who, at 92, is expected to seek an eighth term in the October 2025 presidential election,” adding that the concentration of power and the lack of a historical precedent for presidential transition fostered a high level of uncertainty.
Nevertheless, the constitutional reform of April 2026 prompted Fitch to partially revise its assessment. In its latest evaluation, the agency believes that “the risk of a disorderly power transition in Cameroon has decreased, though not disappeared, following the April 2026 constitutional reform that created the post of vice-president. However, it is not yet known who will fill this role, and risks persist given a fragmented sociopolitical environment.”
Markets have already demonstrated their sensitivity to such signals. In early October 2024, a rumor of Paul Biya’s death triggered a decline in Cameroonian dollar-denominated sovereign bonds. Bloomberg reported at the time that these securities had experienced a third consecutive session of decline “due to uncertainty surrounding President Biya’s health.”
The American media outlet quoted Thys Louw, a manager at Ninety One UK Ltd, who remarked that “President Biya has concentrated a lot of power around him, and a succession crisis could cause significant market volatility.” Sam Singh-Jami, an Africa strategist at Rand Merchant Bank, suggested that “political uncertainty could challenge the country’s ability to maintain its fiscal policy and honor its commitments to international creditors.”
Assets to reassure investors
The political context, however, represents only one of many criteria considered by international investors. Growth prospects, the trajectory of public debt, the quality of the sovereign signature, and credit enhancement mechanisms designed to secure the operation also play a decisive role in their assessment.
To enhance the risk profile of this issuance and boost its attractiveness, Cameroon is collaborating with several international partners. The operation is structured with the support of Matha Capital, acting as financial advisor; the African Development Bank (AfDB); the African Trade Insurance Agency (ATIDI), a multilateral institution specializing in covering trade and investment risks; and the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), a pan-African financial institution focused on infrastructure financing. The involvement of these partners aims to reinforce the issuance’s credibility among investors, particularly those specializing in sustainable finance.
Strong economic fundamentals also present favorable arguments. In its latest rating, Fitch forecasts an average growth of 3.7% in 2026 and 2027, anticipates a reduction in the public debt ratio to 40.2% of GDP by 2027, and recalls Cameroon’s successful mobilization of $750 million on international markets in January 2026 through a widely subscribed Eurobond.
Nevertheless, the agency emphasizes that investors will continue to evaluate several factors, including governance evolution, public finance management, arrears clearance, the conclusion of a new program with the International Monetary Fund, and the broader political climate. As this new international issuance approaches, Paul Biya’s prolonged absence thus introduces an additional element likely to influence Cameroon’s sovereign risk perception. While not, by itself, undermining the country’s capacity to raise funds on international markets, it could impact the conditions under which investors agree to finance this operation.
